STAFF REPORTER

THURSDAY UPDATE: Political machinations of the past few days have implications for the survival of a Labor Government if Kevin Rudd deposes Julia Gillard as leader, says a legal expert from The Australian National University in Canberra.

Yesterday, Mr Rudd announced his resignation as Foreign Minister – clearing the way for him to challenge for the leadership from the Labor back bench.

Ms Gillard responded by calling a leadership vote for Monday. Mr Rudd has not yet confirmed he will run, but he is widely expected to.

Labor holds 72 seats in the House of Representatives and governs with the support of the Greens and three Independents – giving it a majority of 76.

This compares to 72 for the Liberal/National Coalition, which, with the support of Independent Bob Katter, gives it a nominal 73 votes.

The Speaker, Peter Slipper, is also an Independent.

Donald Rothwell of the ANU College of Law says that if Mr Rudd were elected Labor leader it would be questionable whether his government could be presumed to have the same level of support as the current Gillard one.

“That appears doubtful as Tony Windsor has indicated that if Gillard is deposed as Labor leader then ‘all bets are off’,” Professor Rothwell says.

“Rob Oakeshott has also expressed similar reservations.”

Professor Rothwell said if Mr Rudd were to assume the leadership he could seek to renegotiate the support of Mr Oakeshott and Mr Windsor.

But if this were to occur during a Parliamentary sitting week – as next week is – the Coalition could exploit any uncertainty by introducing a motion of No Confidence against Mr Rudd and the Labor Government.

“If that motion succeeded then Rudd would have little choice but to advise the Governor-General that the Parliament should be dissolved and an early election be held,” Professor Rothwell said.

“The Governor-General may accept that advice, or choose to explore with Tony Abbott whether he could command the confidence of the House.

“If Abbott was able to demonstrate to the Governor-General that he did have the confidence of the House then an Abbott Government could be commissioned.

“However, this would require some of the existing supporters of the Gillard Labor Government to switch allegiance to an Abbott Coalition Government.”

Photo: Adam Carr, Wikipedia